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BEIRUT — New outbreaks of violence overnight into Sunday rocked Syria at two distinct flashpoints, straining a fragile ceasefire and calling into question the ability of the transitional government to exert its authority across the whole country.

In the north, government-affiliated fighters confronted Kurdish-led forces who control much of the region, while in the southern province of Sweida, they clashed with Druze armed groups.

The outbreaks come at a time when Syria’s interim authorities are trying to maintain a tense ceasefire in Sweida province after clashes with Druze factions last month, and to implement an agreement with the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that would reintegrate large swaths of northeastern Syria with the rest of the country.

The Syrian government under interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa has been struggling to consolidate control since he led a surprise insurgency that ousted former President Bashar Assad in December, ending the Assad family’s decades-long autocratic rule. Political opponents and ethnic and religious minorities have been suspicious of Sharaa’s de facto Islamist rule and cooperation with affiliated fighters that come from militant groups.

State state television said clashes between government forces and militias belonging to the Druze religious minority rocked the southern province of Sweida on Saturday after Druze factions attacked Syrian security forces, killing at least one member. The state-run Alikhbaria channel cited an anonymous security official who said the ceasefire has been broken. The Defense Ministry has not issued any formal statement.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said in addition to the member of the security forces killed, one Druze was killed and at least nine others were wounded in the clashes that took place in the in the western part of Sweida province. The Observatory said the clashes took place at the strategic Tal al-Hadeed heights that overlook Daraa province next door.

Difficult conditions in Sweida

State media says that aid convoys continue to enter Sweida city as a part of a tense truce after over a week of violent clashes in July between Druze militias and armed Bedouin clans backed by government forces. However, humanitarian conditions remain dire, and residents of Sweida have called for the road into the city to be fully opened, saying the aid that has come in is not enough.

The clashes that displaced tens of thousands of people came after months of tensions between Damascus and Sweida. The fighting led to a series of targeted sectarian attacks against the Druze minority, who are now skeptical of peaceful coexistence. Druze militias retaliated against Bedouin communities who largely lived in western areas of Sweida province, displacing many to neighboring Daraa.

Elsewhere, in the northern Aleppo province, government-affiliated fighters clashed with the SDF. The Defense Ministry said three civilians and four soldiers were wounded after the SDF launched a barrage of rockets near the city of Manbij “in an irresponsible way and for unknown reasons.”

SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami on the other hand said the group was responding to shelling by “undisciplined factions” within government forces on Deir Haffar, an eastern city in the same province.

The eastern part of Aleppo province straddles areas controlled by the government and by the SDF. Though the two are slowly trying to implement a ceasefire and agreement that would integrate the areas under Damascus, tensions remain.

“The Ministry of Defense’s attempts to distort facts and mislead public opinion do not contribute to security or stability,” Shami said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

Israeli forces carry out raids bordering annexed Golan Heights

In Quneitra province, in the south, the Israeli military announced it conducted another ground operation in the area that borders the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. It said its troops questioned several suspects they accuse of involvement in weapons trafficking in the village of Hader, and raided four areas where they found weapons being trafficked.

Since Assad’s ouster, Israel has conducted numerous strikes and military operations in southern Syria, saying its forces are taking out militant groups that they suspect could harm Israelis and residents in the Golan Heights.

Damascus has been critical of Israel’s military activity, and the two sides have been trying to reach a security arrangement through U.S.-mediated talks. Syria has repeatedly said it does not intend to take military action against Israel.

Those talks intensified after Israel backed the Druze in Sweida during the earlier clashes. Israel struck military personnel near the southern city and most notably launched an airstrike targeting the Defense Ministry headquarters in the heart of Damascus.

BEIRUT — New outbreaks of violence overnight into Sunday rocked Syria at two distinct flashpoints, straining a fragile ceasefire and calling into question the ability of the transitional government to exert its authority across the whole country.

In the north, government-affiliated fighters confronted Kurdish-led forces who control much of the region, while in the southern province of Sweida, they clashed with Druze armed groups.

The outbreaks come at a time when Syria’s interim authorities are trying to maintain a tense ceasefire in Sweida province after clashes with Druze factions last month, and to implement an agreement with the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that would reintegrate large swaths of northeastern Syria with the rest of the country.

The Syrian government under interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa has been struggling to consolidate control since he led a surprise insurgency that ousted former President Bashar Assad in December, ending the Assad family’s decades-long autocratic rule. Political opponents and ethnic and religious minorities have been suspicious of Sharaa’s de facto Islamist rule and cooperation with affiliated fighters that come from militant groups.

State state television said clashes between government forces and militias belonging to the Druze religious minority rocked the southern province of Sweida on Saturday after Druze factions attacked Syrian security forces, killing at least one member. The state-run Alikhbaria channel cited an anonymous security official who said the ceasefire has been broken. The Defense Ministry has not issued any formal statement.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said in addition to the member of the security forces killed, one Druze was killed and at least nine others were wounded in the clashes that took place in the in the western part of Sweida province. The Observatory said the clashes took place at the strategic Tal al-Hadeed heights that overlook Daraa province next door.

Difficult conditions in Sweida

State media says that aid convoys continue to enter Sweida city as a part of a tense truce after over a week of violent clashes in July between Druze militias and armed Bedouin clans backed by government forces. However, humanitarian conditions remain dire, and residents of Sweida have called for the road into the city to be fully opened, saying the aid that has come in is not enough.

The clashes that displaced tens of thousands of people came after months of tensions between Damascus and Sweida. The fighting led to a series of targeted sectarian attacks against the Druze minority, who are now skeptical of peaceful coexistence. Druze militias retaliated against Bedouin communities who largely lived in western areas of Sweida province, displacing many to neighboring Daraa.

Elsewhere, in the northern Aleppo province, government-affiliated fighters clashed with the SDF. The Defense Ministry said three civilians and four soldiers were wounded after the SDF launched a barrage of rockets near the city of Manbij “in an irresponsible way and for unknown reasons.”

SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami on the other hand said the group was responding to shelling by “undisciplined factions” within government forces on Deir Haffar, an eastern city in the same province.

The eastern part of Aleppo province straddles areas controlled by the government and by the SDF. Though the two are slowly trying to implement a ceasefire and agreement that would integrate the areas under Damascus, tensions remain.

“The Ministry of Defense’s attempts to distort facts and mislead public opinion do not contribute to security or stability,” Shami said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

Israeli forces carry out raids bordering annexed Golan Heights

In Quneitra province, in the south, the Israeli military announced it conducted another ground operation in the area that borders the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. It said its troops questioned several suspects they accuse of involvement in weapons trafficking in the village of Hader, and raided four areas where they found weapons being trafficked.

Since Assad’s ouster, Israel has conducted numerous strikes and military operations in southern Syria, saying its forces are taking out militant groups that they suspect could harm Israelis and residents in the Golan Heights.

Damascus has been critical of Israel’s military activity, and the two sides have been trying to reach a security arrangement through U.S.-mediated talks. Syria has repeatedly said it does not intend to take military action against Israel.

Those talks intensified after Israel backed the Druze in Sweida during the earlier clashes. Israel struck military personnel near the southern city and most notably launched an airstrike targeting the Defense Ministry headquarters in the heart of Damascus.

Wellington
AP
 — 

A New Zealand woman was arrested on a child neglect charge Sunday after a bus driver found a 2-year-old girl alive in a suitcase that was stowed in the vehicle’s luggage compartment, authorities said.

The bus driver noticed movement inside the bag during a planned stop at the settlement of Kaiwaka, north of Auckland, after a passenger asked for access to the luggage compartment, Detective Inspector Simon Harrison said in a statement.

When the driver opened the suitcase they discovered the 2-year-old girl, who was very hot but otherwise appeared physically unharmed, Harrison said. Authorities didn’t disclose the length of time the toddler was in the baggage compartment or which cities the bus was traveling between.

The child was taken to a hospital, where she remained Sunday night local time.

The arrested woman was charged with ill-treatment or neglect of a child and was due to appear in court Monday. She was not named by law enforcement.

The bus company InterCity confirmed to New Zealand news outlets that the episode involved one of its vehicles. The company does not charge fares for children younger than 3 years, who can travel for free on an adult’s lap.

Wellington
AP
 — 

A New Zealand woman was arrested on a child neglect charge Sunday after a bus driver found a 2-year-old girl alive in a suitcase that was stowed in the vehicle’s luggage compartment, authorities said.

The bus driver noticed movement inside the bag during a planned stop at the settlement of Kaiwaka, north of Auckland, after a passenger asked for access to the luggage compartment, Detective Inspector Simon Harrison said in a statement.

When the driver opened the suitcase they discovered the 2-year-old girl, who was very hot but otherwise appeared physically unharmed, Harrison said. Authorities didn’t disclose the length of time the toddler was in the baggage compartment or which cities the bus was traveling between.

The child was taken to a hospital, where she remained Sunday night local time.

The arrested woman was charged with ill-treatment or neglect of a child and was due to appear in court Monday. She was not named by law enforcement.

The bus company InterCity confirmed to New Zealand news outlets that the episode involved one of its vehicles. The company does not charge fares for children younger than 3 years, who can travel for free on an adult’s lap.

Wellington
AP
 — 

A New Zealand woman was arrested on a child neglect charge Sunday after a bus driver found a 2-year-old girl alive in a suitcase that was stowed in the vehicle’s luggage compartment, authorities said.

The bus driver noticed movement inside the bag during a planned stop at the settlement of Kaiwaka, north of Auckland, after a passenger asked for access to the luggage compartment, Detective Inspector Simon Harrison said in a statement.

When the driver opened the suitcase they discovered the 2-year-old girl, who was very hot but otherwise appeared physically unharmed, Harrison said. Authorities didn’t disclose the length of time the toddler was in the baggage compartment or which cities the bus was traveling between.

The child was taken to a hospital, where she remained Sunday night local time.

The arrested woman was charged with ill-treatment or neglect of a child and was due to appear in court Monday. She was not named by law enforcement.

The bus company InterCity confirmed to New Zealand news outlets that the episode involved one of its vehicles. The company does not charge fares for children younger than 3 years, who can travel for free on an adult’s lap.

Wellington
AP
 — 

A New Zealand woman was arrested on a child neglect charge Sunday after a bus driver found a 2-year-old girl alive in a suitcase that was stowed in the vehicle’s luggage compartment, authorities said.

The bus driver noticed movement inside the bag during a planned stop at the settlement of Kaiwaka, north of Auckland, after a passenger asked for access to the luggage compartment, Detective Inspector Simon Harrison said in a statement.

When the driver opened the suitcase they discovered the 2-year-old girl, who was very hot but otherwise appeared physically unharmed, Harrison said. Authorities didn’t disclose the length of time the toddler was in the baggage compartment or which cities the bus was traveling between.

The child was taken to a hospital, where she remained Sunday night local time.

The arrested woman was charged with ill-treatment or neglect of a child and was due to appear in court Monday. She was not named by law enforcement.

The bus company InterCity confirmed to New Zealand news outlets that the episode involved one of its vehicles. The company does not charge fares for children younger than 3 years, who can travel for free on an adult’s lap.

Wellington
AP
 — 

A New Zealand woman was arrested on a child neglect charge Sunday after a bus driver found a 2-year-old girl alive in a suitcase that was stowed in the vehicle’s luggage compartment, authorities said.

The bus driver noticed movement inside the bag during a planned stop at the settlement of Kaiwaka, north of Auckland, after a passenger asked for access to the luggage compartment, Detective Inspector Simon Harrison said in a statement.

When the driver opened the suitcase they discovered the 2-year-old girl, who was very hot but otherwise appeared physically unharmed, Harrison said. Authorities didn’t disclose the length of time the toddler was in the baggage compartment or which cities the bus was traveling between.

The child was taken to a hospital, where she remained Sunday night local time.

The arrested woman was charged with ill-treatment or neglect of a child and was due to appear in court Monday. She was not named by law enforcement.

The bus company InterCity confirmed to New Zealand news outlets that the episode involved one of its vehicles. The company does not charge fares for children younger than 3 years, who can travel for free on an adult’s lap.

Wellington
AP
 — 

A New Zealand woman was arrested on a child neglect charge Sunday after a bus driver found a 2-year-old girl alive in a suitcase that was stowed in the vehicle’s luggage compartment, authorities said.

The bus driver noticed movement inside the bag during a planned stop at the settlement of Kaiwaka, north of Auckland, after a passenger asked for access to the luggage compartment, Detective Inspector Simon Harrison said in a statement.

When the driver opened the suitcase they discovered the 2-year-old girl, who was very hot but otherwise appeared physically unharmed, Harrison said. Authorities didn’t disclose the length of time the toddler was in the baggage compartment or which cities the bus was traveling between.

The child was taken to a hospital, where she remained Sunday night local time.

The arrested woman was charged with ill-treatment or neglect of a child and was due to appear in court Monday. She was not named by law enforcement.

The bus company InterCity confirmed to New Zealand news outlets that the episode involved one of its vehicles. The company does not charge fares for children younger than 3 years, who can travel for free on an adult’s lap.

The global rollercoaster ride of United States trade tariffs has now entered its latest phase.

President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement placed
reciprocal tariffs on all countries. A week later, amid financial market turmoil, these tariffs were paused and replaced by a 10% baseline tariff on most goods.

On July 31, however, the Trump Administration reinstated and expanded the reciprocal tariff policy. Most of these updated tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 7.

To evaluate the impact of these latest tariffs, we also need to take into account recently negotiated free trade agreements (such as the US-European Union deal), the 50% tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium imports, and tariff exemptions for imports of smartphones, computers and other electronics.

For selected countries, the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 and the revised values of these tariffs are shown in the table below. The revised additional tariffs are highest for Brazil (50%) and Switzerland (39%), and lowest for Australia and the United Kingdom (10%).

For most countries, the revised tariffs are lower than the original ones. But Brazil, Switzerland and New Zealand are subject to higher tariffs than those announced in April.

In addition to the tariffs displayed above, Canadian and Mexican goods not registered as compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement are subject to tariffs of 35% and 25% respectively.

Economic impacts

The economic impacts of the revised tariffs are examined using a global model of goods and services markets, covering production, trade and consumption.

A similar model was used to assess the impacts of the original reciprocal tariffs and the outcome of a US-China trade war.

GDP impacts of the tariffs are displayed in the table below. The impacts of the additional tariffs are evaluated relative to trade measures in place before Trump’s second term. Retaliatory tariffs are not considered in the analysis.

An economic own goal

The tariffs reduce US annual GDP by 0.36%. This equates to US$108.2 billion or $861 per household per year (all amounts in this article are in US dollars).

The change in US GDP is an aggregate of impacts involving several factors.

The tariffs will compel foreign producers to lower their prices. But these price decreases only partially offset the cost of the tariffs, so US consumers pay higher prices.

Businesses also pay more for parts and materials. Ultimately, these higher prices hurt the US economy.

The tariffs decrease US merchandise imports by $486.7 billion. But as they drive up the cost of US supply chains and shift more workers and resources into industries that compete with imports, away from other parts of the economy, they also decrease US merchandise exports by $451.1 billion.

Global impacts

For most other countries, the additional tariffs reduce GDP. Switzerland’s GDP decreases by 0.47%, equivalent to $1,215 per household per year. Proportional GDP decreases are also relatively large for Thailand (0.44%) and Taiwan (0.38%).

In dollar terms, GDP decreases are relatively large for China ($66.9 billion) and the European Union ($26.6 billion).

Australia and the United Kingdom gain from the tariffs ($0.1 billion and $0.07 billion respectively), primarily due to the relatively low tariffs levied on these countries.

Despite facing relatively low additional tariffs, New Zealand’s GDP decreases by 0.15% ($204 per household) as many of its agricultural exports compete with Australian commodities, which are subject to an even lower tariff.

Although the revised reciprocal tariffs are, on average, lower than those announced on April 2, they are still a substantial shock to the global trading system.

Financial markets have been buoyant since Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on April 9, partly on the hope that the tariffs would never be imposed. US tariffs of at least 10% to 15% now appear to be the new norm.

As US warehouses run down inventories and stockpiles, there could be a rocky road ahead.

The global rollercoaster ride of United States trade tariffs has now entered its latest phase.

President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement placed
reciprocal tariffs on all countries. A week later, amid financial market turmoil, these tariffs were paused and replaced by a 10% baseline tariff on most goods.

On July 31, however, the Trump Administration reinstated and expanded the reciprocal tariff policy. Most of these updated tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 7.

To evaluate the impact of these latest tariffs, we also need to take into account recently negotiated free trade agreements (such as the US-European Union deal), the 50% tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium imports, and tariff exemptions for imports of smartphones, computers and other electronics.

For selected countries, the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 and the revised values of these tariffs are shown in the table below. The revised additional tariffs are highest for Brazil (50%) and Switzerland (39%), and lowest for Australia and the United Kingdom (10%).

For most countries, the revised tariffs are lower than the original ones. But Brazil, Switzerland and New Zealand are subject to higher tariffs than those announced in April.

In addition to the tariffs displayed above, Canadian and Mexican goods not registered as compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement are subject to tariffs of 35% and 25% respectively.

Economic impacts

The economic impacts of the revised tariffs are examined using a global model of goods and services markets, covering production, trade and consumption.

A similar model was used to assess the impacts of the original reciprocal tariffs and the outcome of a US-China trade war.

GDP impacts of the tariffs are displayed in the table below. The impacts of the additional tariffs are evaluated relative to trade measures in place before Trump’s second term. Retaliatory tariffs are not considered in the analysis.

An economic own goal

The tariffs reduce US annual GDP by 0.36%. This equates to US$108.2 billion or $861 per household per year (all amounts in this article are in US dollars).

The change in US GDP is an aggregate of impacts involving several factors.

The tariffs will compel foreign producers to lower their prices. But these price decreases only partially offset the cost of the tariffs, so US consumers pay higher prices.

Businesses also pay more for parts and materials. Ultimately, these higher prices hurt the US economy.

The tariffs decrease US merchandise imports by $486.7 billion. But as they drive up the cost of US supply chains and shift more workers and resources into industries that compete with imports, away from other parts of the economy, they also decrease US merchandise exports by $451.1 billion.

Global impacts

For most other countries, the additional tariffs reduce GDP. Switzerland’s GDP decreases by 0.47%, equivalent to $1,215 per household per year. Proportional GDP decreases are also relatively large for Thailand (0.44%) and Taiwan (0.38%).

In dollar terms, GDP decreases are relatively large for China ($66.9 billion) and the European Union ($26.6 billion).

Australia and the United Kingdom gain from the tariffs ($0.1 billion and $0.07 billion respectively), primarily due to the relatively low tariffs levied on these countries.

Despite facing relatively low additional tariffs, New Zealand’s GDP decreases by 0.15% ($204 per household) as many of its agricultural exports compete with Australian commodities, which are subject to an even lower tariff.

Although the revised reciprocal tariffs are, on average, lower than those announced on April 2, they are still a substantial shock to the global trading system.

Financial markets have been buoyant since Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on April 9, partly on the hope that the tariffs would never be imposed. US tariffs of at least 10% to 15% now appear to be the new norm.

As US warehouses run down inventories and stockpiles, there could be a rocky road ahead.